Research

Selected Publications

1. Yu, Y., Qayyum, M., & Li, S. (2024). Trade dynamics of environmental goods within global energy economy and their impacts on green technological innovation: A complex network analysis. Energy Economics, 140, 107957.

2. Zhang, Y., Qayyum, M., & Yu, Y. (2023). Effects of resource abundance on economic complexity: Evidence from spatial panel model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 427, 139134.

3. Yu, Y., & Qayyum, M. (2023). Impacts of financial openness on economic complexity: Cross-country evidence. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1514–1526.

Working Papers

1. Evading the Ban: Smuggling, Pollution, and the Welfare Effects of China’s Waste Import Restrictions (with Hanwei Huang), selected for the ISoT–2nd Edition (organized by the Journal of International Economics, University of Geneva, the World Bank, and the CEPR). (Job Market Paper)

   Presentations: AEA 2027 (Washington DC, planned); AEDC 2026 (Hong Kong); AMES-E/SE 2026 (Hanoi); 12th HKEA Biennial Conference (Macau); SMU Trade Conference 2026 (Singapore)

   Abstract: While import restrictions are increasingly deployed to achieve non-trade objectives such as environmental protection, they often create distortions and leakage through illicit trade. We examine this trade-off in the context of China’s waste import ban. Although the policy produced measurable reductions in pollution, it also induced significant behavioral responses, including surging evasion via quantity underreporting, heightened smuggling-related criminal activity, and deteriorating performance among affected firms. To quantify the welfare effects, we develop a hybrid sufficient-statistic framework that integrates reduced-form evasion elasticities with structural estimates of shadow costs. We find that the environmental gains more than offset the costs of smuggling and losses from distortions.

Work in Progress

1. “Dam Good for Trade” (with Hanwei Huang, Yu-Hsiang Lei, and Yan Lei).